After a stellar run in 2021 that saw the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 clock gains of 20 per cent and 22 per cent respectively, global equity markets, including India, are gearing up to welcome 2022 on a cautious note. For one, new variants of the Covid -19 infection that make current vaccines less effective is one of the key risks worth flagging, analysts said. Inflation was also a risk for this asset class in 2021, although most market participants expect that the current elevated inflation levels will be transitory.
High fiscal deficits raise inflation which hits the lowest income and salaried classes.
Gold, which lost its sheen to some extent in the second half of 2021, is likely to regain the glitter in the New Year and cross the Rs 55,000-per-10-grams level amid pandemic woes, inflation worries and stronger US dollar. After a stellar run up in 2020 when the yellow metal touched a record high of Rs 56,200 on the MCX in August, the prices are near Rs 48,000 per 10 grams now. This is roughly 14 per cent lower from the all-time highs and 4 per cent lesser compared to January 2021 levels.
'The big elephant in the room is our misguided view about the rupee.' 'India is scared that if our currency appreciates, who will buy from us. But a breakout is inevitable.'
Raghuram Rajan speaks on the unscheduled rate cut.
Although this may not be music to Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya's ears, the real reason in my estimation for their quitting is expatriate over-sensitivity, intolerance or arrogance, argues B S Raghavan, the distinguished civil servant.
RBI is unlikely to stem the slide against the dollar as the greenback is rising rapidly against all currencies in the world.
'The government's principal aim should be to reduce the volume of cash transactions.' 'That would bring more of the Indian economy within the purview of taxation.' 'The current downturn in economic activity due to a lack of adequate cash is likely to be limited to a year,'
The biggest lesson China can teach India is that when it comes to sustaining a love affair with investors, nothing works better than an undervalued currency and its by-product: a current-account surplus.
The finance ministry and RBI must get less conservative and improve co-ordination.
India Inc said policymakers should take doable steps to revive fixed investments and production of capital goods
The government's second round of stimulus will spur consumer spending in the near term but support to economic growth will be minimal, Moody's Investors Service said.
Calling out the high real interest rates -- the differential between the policy rate and headline inflation -- as an impediment to investment, the SBI report said the RBI can cut rates by 0.35-0.50 per cent at its next policy announcement.
"The poor will not suffer disproportionately due to bouts of sharp inflation, and the middle class will not see its savings eroded," Raghuram Rajan said.
Domestic households are grossly underexposed to equities.
The market price action seems to point in this direction. Let's hope we finally break out. It is about time! asserts Akash Prakash.
Industry estimates suggest that the extent of value addition in the handset space remains at a mere 10 per cent. That effectively means, value-wise 90 per cent of all components used in making a handset continues to be imported.
Several types of investment risks can threaten your portfolio -- some are easier to avoid than others
Manish Sabharwal tackles 5 criticisms of demonetisation.
The Finance Ministry expects GDP growth to be 8-8.5 per cent in 2015-16.
'The CEA suggested that could be as high as 19 per cent.'
Demonetisation is the biggest reason for the rise in preference for small savings.
'The debate is not whether the Indian defence apparatus is in a state of disrepair, but whether it is capable of securing the defence of the country if any envisaged threat becomes real.'
One category which stands out is fixed maturity plans due to its tax benefits, notes Prateek Mehta, CEO and company-co-founder, Upwardly.in.
Raghavendra Kamath reports on what ails India's real estate sector.
Surging value of dollar may be posing the biggest threat to US corporate earnings.
The outlook for India's rating would improve if fiscal, inflation and infrastructure metrics get better, a global report said.
The silver lining is that a pick-up in the US economy could help emerging market exports.
Fifty per cent of bank restructured assets were in infrastructure, steel, power and telecom sectors.
From Jammu and Kashmir to Andhra Pradesh, consumers are facing power cuts ranging from 2 hours to 8 hours.
FY17 GDP growth faces cash crunch heat
As an exercise, Ray is an effort worth encouraging. As a collaboration, it a hit and miss, notes Sukanya Verma.
Market participants are hoping for a few tweaks on the taxation front which will encourage consumers and businesses to spend.
Bubbles can inflate indefinitely and also burst, with deep corrections, warns Devangshu Datta.
Jimmy Patel, MD & CEO, Quantum Mutual Fund, suggests some valuable financial gifts for your children.
Within hours of rate cut announced by RBI, United Bank has reduced the benchmark lending rate by 0.25 per cent, while other banks including market leader SBI have indicated that they would follow suit.
'China need not worry about a truly 'resurgent India'.' 'It's not going to happen.'
After helping the government in policymaking since October 2014, Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian is returning to academics and will be teaching at Harvard Kennedy School on a visiting position. In an interview to Dilasha Seth and Somesh Jha, he says the ease of doing business agenda needs to move forward and India must try to integrate with the global value chains. Edited excerpts.
'As of now, it is hard to see how the stalemate can be broken.' 'For the Sikh Jat farmers who constitute the core of the protest are a simple-minded but stubborn lot. 'They are unlikely to call off the stir unless provided a sense of 'victory'.' 'Give them a reason to boast that they brought the government to its knees and they will start singing hallelujahs to the Modi government,' argues Virendra Kapoor.
'We have the political will to take this to the very end.' 'But what eventually happens depends on the effectiveness, honesty and missionary zeal of the officialdom in the frontline of the battle against corruption,' says S Muralidharan.
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